If you think the housing crisis is bad enough in WA, then give some thought to the latest population projections by the Centre for Population.
It predicts that the population of our State, which has the highest population growth rate in Australia, will surge by another 500,000 people over the next decade to at least 3.5 million people.
The Centre for Population also projects that WA will be the fastest growing State in Australia over most of the next decade.
In a nutshell, this surging population growth means that WA has to find homes to house nearly the entire population of Tasmania over the next decade, when we are already under severe housing stress.
The most obvious question to ask after being confronted with this grim prediction is, where are all these additional homes going to come from, especially in Perth, which accounts for the vast majority of the population growth in our State?
For years, we have been relying on urban sprawl as a quick fix to supply homes for our ever-increasing population to the extent that our city now covers a land footprint nearly the size of London with a fraction of that city’s population.
Unfortunately, that option is rapidly closing off, not only because we are running out of greenfield land, but also because of the massive strain urban sprawl is putting on taxpayers.
That squeeze was highlighted recently by Research4 director Colin Keane, who showed the new land supply pipeline in Perth was under significant pressure.
“For years, we have been relying on urban sprawl as a quick fix to supply homes for our ever-increasing population to the extent that our city now covers a land footprint nearly the size of London with a fraction of that city’s population.”
He warned there was only about four years of new stock coming through the pipeline in areas including the south-east and north-east metropolitan corridors.
This warning about future land supply is backed up by the latest statistics, which show that during the March quarter, the total stock of developers’ residential lots with conditional approval decreased by 7 per cent to a total of 63,602 lots.
A decade ago, there were 83,833 residential lots with conditional approval, or more than 20,000 more than now.
On top of this is the huge cost to taxpayers in funding urban sprawl.
It has been estimated that urban sprawl costs WA an average of $2.5 billion a year in associated costs such as providing new infrastructure and transport to support these new housing developments.
The Property Council of Australia also estimates that the State Government could save up to $94.5 million for every 1000 lots redeveloped in existing underutilised or declining urban areas instead of developing brand new greenfield land on our city’s fringe.
WA is heading for a housing train wreck over the next decade unless we get real about putting housing infill ahead of urban sprawl.
Currently, we are only achieving a net infill rate of 34 per cent compared with the Government’s long-term target of 47 per cent by 2050. If successive governments since 2011 had adhered to this 47 per cent infill target, then we would not be in such a dire situation. We are now at a crossroads in solving our housing shortage. Continue to rely on urban sprawl for housing and see this issue develop into a full-scale and baked-in crisis.
Or, turbocharge infill developments to avoid this impending disaster.
In particular, we need to encourage smaller boutique builders and developers through a range of State Government incentives, which could quickly result in a major increase in low-density and affordable housing in near-city areas.
We also need more flexible zoning rules to boost the availability of infill housing lots and massively reduce the red tape that is putting financial roadblocks for small developers wanting to undertake infill developments. But above all, we need the political will to make this happen.
That means the will to ensure that the Government’s own 47 per cent infill target is adhered to.
In that respect, I find it very encouraging that the Upper House of the State Parliament will investigate why successive governments have not achieved this critically important housing target.
The Select Committee into Land Development and Planning in WA has recently been established and will examine key strategic planning documents such as Perth and Peel@3.5 Million, including meeting infill targets.
This is an important political first step to help us avoid an unprecedented housing crisis in our State if we fail to act on accelerating urban infill.
Article by James Limnios is the managing director of Limnios Property Group
3 September 2025
